Predicting the Response of Farmland Birds to Agricultural Change

The deleterious effects of agricultural intensification on the abundance and diversity of farmland birds are now generally accepted.

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has adopted as one of its eight Public Service Agreement (PSA) targets to reverse the long-term decline in the number of farmland birds by 2020.

This is measured annually using the 'farmland bird index', which comprises populations trends of 20 species.

To meet this target it will be necessary to determine (i) the magnitude of changes in demographic rates required to reverse these declines and the habitat management changes required to achieve these; (ii) the extent to which current land management measures (within and outside agri-environment schemes) already meet species' needs and; (iii) identify any gaps in knowledge required to predict responses of these 20 bird species to habitat management change.

The work reported here addresses the first issue using population and habitat association modelling, the second issue using a literature bases review and draws on the results of both of these to address the third issue.