The Long Waltz: Temporal Horizons and Strategic Decisions in Us-China Relations

This study investigated the predictive validity of Algebra I, IA, and IB criterion referenced tests (CRTs) on the performance on the mathematics section of the Alabama High School Graduation Examination (AHSGE).

This study also examined whether there was a gap in performance among African American and non-African American students.

The analyses included in this study involved determining if CRT scores were predictive of passing the ASHGE and passing on this examination on the first attempt.

Finally, this study examined time lag. Specifically, the analysis for time lag involved determining whether predictability of performance changed based on the time between course completion and taking the AHSGE.

The data were given for Algebra I in the following semesters: Spring 2004, Fall 2004, Spring 2005, Fall 2005, and Spring 2006.

For Algebra IA/IB, the first set of data was given beginning in Spring 2004. Because the courses are taken separately, data were given in combined semesters, including Fall 2004/Spring 2005, and Fall 2005/Spring 2006.

Results of the study indicated that Algebra I, IA/IB CRT scores were weak predictors of performance on that mathematics section of the AHSGE.

Findings for Algebra I scores revealed the non-African American students with higher percentage pass rates for passing the AHSGE and for passing the examination on the first attempt.

The first attempt analyses for Algebra IA/IB scores revealed African American students to sometimes have higher percentage pass rates than non-African American students.

Overall, the predictive validity of Algebra I, IA/IB CRT scores for performance on the mathematics section of the AHSGE was weak.