Comparative Assessment of Advanced Techniques for the Evaluation of Confidence Levels in Calculated Saftey Margins

In many instances, safety cases employ the predictions of large and complex computer programmes.

Using engineering safety test problems, this document investigates the FORM/SORM method.

This is a mathematical technique which provides a means to quantify the confidence that a user or an assessor should have in computer predictions when the data being used and, in some cases, the conditions being modelled are uncertain.